The Real Iran: A Country Behind Bars

So Iran is back in the news. Boy, that Ahmadinejad is a nut job. I'd like to shed some light on the facts about the situation in Iran because people are speculating about what the US will do to combat this problem and when or if our troops will be sent. The reality is, I think talk like that is jumping the gun. Iran's biggest threat doesn't need to come from us because it's already coming from within.

Iran is a country ripe for revolution. In fact, I have a standing bet with a certain lawyer that a revolution will take place there within the next five years. I really do. I bet on everything, it's terrible; I know. But, I tend to bet on the things about which I have the most knowledge, and Iran just so happens to be one of my favorites.

To be sure, when you begin adding the ingredients of the current political and economic situation in Iran, it starts to look a lot like the time of the ousting of Mohammad Reza Shah. Here's a brief nugget, for those of you who aren't up to date on your Iranian Revolutionary History: According to, "The Persian Puzzle," by Kenneth M. Pollack, "The literacy rate rose from 14.6 percent of the population in 1956 to 29.4 percent in 1966 and then to 47.5 percent in 1976....One of the worst legacies of the White Revolution was that it sparked new expectations of a better life in the minds of many Iranians, especially among the lower classes, but then failed to deliver."

Similarly, in Iran there are currently more women in college universities than men. The statistic growth of this sector is mind-boggling. Again, we have a formerly uneducated portion of the country making a drastic improvement. Deja-vu anyone? With education comes expectation, and again the Irani government isn't delivering. Both the social expectations of women and the lack of employment opportunities on the whole have already begun to stir the pot of political unrest.

The unemployment rate in Iran has been astronomical. Iran's unemployment rate reached 16.3% in 2003, when inflation hit 18%. Currently, "Iran’s official unemployment rate is about 13 percent though economists estimate the real figure is way higher than what the government claims, says a report in the Persian daily Barnameh."

Take a good look at Iran's population breakdown. It has been documented that Sixty-eight percent of the country is between the ages of 15 and 64 years old. Another source states that Iran's under-30 crowd makes up 70 percent of the population. Do you know what happens to countries that cannot provide jobs to its people when the majority of its constituents are of the employable age?

You can ask me now because I have an answer for you: The Iran Daily reports: United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) in its latest report on drug abuse stated that Iran--the world’s largest combater of narcotics--ranks first in terms of drug abuse.

Unfortunately, the oil rich country doesn't spend its money creating more jobs or even making social contributions to its poorest (yet most oil-wealthy) regions. For example, many of the citizens in Khuzestan: are drug addicts now. Depression is also rife in these areas. We believe that these phenomena are more dangerous than natural disasters because they target the family structure and have adverse social consequences.

When its government doesn't listen, and people are jobless and depressed, regime change in that country has a history of coming from the inside. I could go on for days about this subject, but I think you may be getting the point.

Iran has a growing group of angry, young people to deal with. And as we know, it's angry young people that have created more problems in Iran than any Arab or Western government (see: 1953, 1979) could dream of doing. I know some of you are still pointing your finger at British and US involvement, respectively, but the reality is without the citizens of Iran rioting in the streets, no CIA-led team could have hoped to accomplish as much.

I don't want to overwhelm you with too many statistical facts for now. I'm sure I'll return to this subject, as I expect Ahmadinejad will continue to give us all some more gems on which to feast. For now, suffice it to say that I am banking on the race between nuclear capabilities and revolution to be won by the latter.